The light at the end of the tunnel, is the Coronavirus express train coming straight at you says Julian Bray

The new normal? Whichever way you look at it, the aviation, travel and cruise industry is looking into a deep hole with no early prospect of it materially improving. writes Julian Bray, aviation expert, writer and broadcaster.

75 years ago, the second World War in Europe ends. Street parties, celebrations but Britain is still on rationing however children were happy and well fed.

Countless thousands of families have their hard earned holiday cash locked inside the bank accounts of tour operators, and compliant travel agents have just quietly banked the generous commissions and additional bonuses surrounding the holiday product (essentially in some cases holidaymakers sign a 30page small print legally  binding contract) they have managed to unload onto an unsuspecting public.

The travel trade does not like it when I say to people do not part with your money to a travel agent for a promise of a holiday in 2020.....

It's not happening, without the prospect of a mandatory 14 day quarantine or even being turned around at the destination airport and immediately sent home. That is the current reality. And don't even think of NOT taking out travel insurance for you and your family. Expect those insurance premiums to be hiked up by 30percent! But even higher if you have any form of pre-existing medical conditions. Reliance on the EHIC card is no longer sufficient.

If the UK demands a 14 day quarantine for arrivals on the UK then don't be surprised if the Spaniards and Greeks jump up and down if their citizens are treated the same way.

Already with a few flights being enacted. Spain is stopping British Holidaymakers and putting them on the next plane back to the UK. To say the position is confused is an understatement. Simply British Subjects with property in Spain MIGHT be let in, but British Subjects with just an Hotel booked and paid for, might be stopped. Simply Spain is playing hard ball they want the UK ( now out of the EU...) to offer reciprocity for their respective cutizens. But that is unlikely to happen, in the near future.

So the logic is forget an overseas holiday this year, and possibly think about next year.  That is of course if there is no second wave of Covid-19 (coronavirus) ready to hit us this Winter!

The key of course is a viable vaccine, experts say to protect the world, we need 15 billion doses to be administered within the next six months. Clearly that is not going to happen. Already the major drug companies are being signed up on exclusivity deals.

We have to remember we are still only half way through the original #coravirus pandemic. Ideally everything should be locked down and social distancing brutally enfirced. But that gentle reader, is not how the politicians see this.

Degrees of relaxation are being introduced despite the increasingly growing prospect of a second wave. The current thinking in scientific circles is that the second wave currently brewing in Beijing, China will be the driving force behind an upward re-infection rate.

The number of mass participation demos and protests clearly does not help.